Prices are now rising slightly after a slow start to 2024
House prices have seen a modest increase so far this year, but expectations of a significant market uplift have been hindered by persistently high mortgage rates.
The most recent data from the Land Registry indicates an annual rise of 1.1%, with the average UK house price standing at £281,000 in March. While this isn’t far off the all-time high of £292,000 recorded in September 2022, prices have generally been trending downwards rather than upwards.
Here, Angel Properties analyses what’s happening to house prices according to other indices, including Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove, and Zoopla, and explores what might come next.
How Have House Prices Changed?
The Land Registry’s UK House Price Index is the most reliable measure of house price trends, as it is based on actual property sales rather than asking prices. It operates on a two-month lag, so the most recent figures are for April.
The Land Registry reports that the average price of a property in the UK increased by 1.1% between April 2023 and April 2024.
In the preceding 12 months, house price growth was higher at 1.6%.
There is a notable gap of £90,000 between the average price paid by first-time buyers and those who are already on the housing ladder in Great Britain (data is not available for Northern Ireland):
- First-time buyer: £236,000
- Home mover: £326,000
How Do Other House Price Indices Compare?
In addition to Land Registry data, several other property price indices provide insights into house prices.
Rightmove offers the most up-to-date figures, but they are based on asking prices set by sellers rather than confirmed sales. Zoopla’s figures are based on sold prices, mortgage valuations, and recently-agreed sales.
Nationwide and Halifax also publish their own monthly data, which is based on mortgage lending.
Currently, Rightmove, Nationwide, and Halifax are all reporting small year-on-year rises in prices.
| House Price Index | Month-on-month change | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Rightmove (June 2024) | 0.0% | +0.6% |
| Zoopla (May 2024) | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| Nationwide (May 2024) | +0.4% | +1.3% |
| Halifax (May 2024) | -0.1% | +1.5% |
House Price Changes by Region in April 2024
Price changes vary significantly by region and country.
Land Registry data shows that most areas recorded slight price increases in April.
London (-3.9%) experienced the largest annual fall in prices up to April 2024.
| Country/Region | Property Price | Monthly Change | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | £298,000 | +0.3% | +0.6% |
| Scotland | £190,000 | +1.3% | +4.5% |
| Wales | £208,000 | -2.1% | +0.4% |
| Northern Ireland (Jan-Mar 2024) | £178,000 | +0.4% | +4% |
| East Midlands | £242,000 | +0.7% | +1.1% |
| East of England | £335,000 | -0.7% | +0.4% |
| London | £502,000 | -0.2% | -3.9% |
| North East | £159,000 | +0.6% | +1% |
| North West | £217,000 | +0.7% | +3.8% |
| South East | £375,000 | +1.4% | -0.4% |
| South West | £318,000 | +1.1% | +1.8% |
| West Midlands | £246,000 | +0.4% | +2% |
| Yorkshire & Humber | £203,000 | -1.4% | +0.2% |
How Many Homes Are Being Sold?
There was a significant drop in housing transactions last year, but there are now signs of market recovery.
The latest data from HMRC shows that an estimated 90,430 transactions were completed in April 2024, up 10% from April 2023.
Will the Property Market Pick Up?
Buyer demand fell in 2023 due to high mortgage rates, leading to a market slowdown.
The estate agent trade body Propertymark notes that the number of buyers registering with estate agents increased in April, with around nine new applicants for each new property available.
Rightmove reports that sellers are taking an average of 60 days to secure a buyer, compared to 55 days in May last year.
What Will Happen to House Prices?
At the start of 2024, lenders and estate agents expected a challenging year for house prices.
HSBC and Nationwide predicted prices would remain flat, while Halifax, Rightmove, and Zoopla projected declines of between 1% and 3%.
However, recent forecasts are more optimistic.
The estate agency Savills revised its prediction from a 3% drop to a 2.5% rise, citing easing mortgage rates and a slightly improved economic outlook.
Knight Frank’s updated forecast is similar, predicting a 3% rise in the UK as a whole, and a 2% rise in Greater London.
How Angel Properties Can Help
If you’re looking to sell your house quickly, Angel Properties can assist. We offer a range of services to make the selling process smooth and efficient. Whether you’re a first-time seller or looking to move up the property ladder, our team is here to help. Visit our website for more information:
Original Link: https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/whats-happening-to-house-prices-aVCwI8I22pBe
